California Governor Race 2026: Becerra Leads as Primary Nears End

Becerra Opens Sizable Lead with 23% in PPIC Poll

Xavier Becerra has jumped to a 23% lead in the California governor's race, according to a mid-May Public Policy Institute of California poll. The former attorney general has created clear separation from his closest Democratic rival, Tom Steyer, who trails at 15%, and leads the Republican field with Steve Hilton at 20%.

“He’s in a very strong position now,” said PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. “If there are two Democrats, we’ll see what happens, but if it’s a Democrat and a Republican, we know what the voter registration shows in California.”

Becerra's advantage positions him as the favorite heading into the final week of the primary. Key factors driving his lead include name recognition from his tenure as California's top prosecutor and his support from the Democratic establishment.

• Becerra leads with 23% support among likely voters.
• Republican Steve Hilton follows at 20%, making him the top GOP candidate.
• Tom Steyer is in third place with 15%, narrowing the Democratic primary to a two-person race.

Republican Steve Hilton Emerges as Top Challenger at 20%

Steve Hilton, a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, has emerged as the leading Republican candidate with 20% support in the PPIC poll. If the primary results hold, Hilton would face Becerra in the general election, a matchup that heavily favors the Democrat given California's voter registration.

Steyer's campaign pushed back on the poll, noting it did not capture the latter part of May — a period in which Steyer has increased his attacks on Becerra, running advertisements that highlight his support from the oil industry.

Hilton has positioned himself as a moderate Republican, focusing on economic issues and appealing to disaffected independents. This strategy mirrors efforts in other states, such as Pennsylvania's push to become a tech hub, emphasizing job creation and innovation. However, California's Democratic electorate makes a general election victory an uphill battle.

• Hilton leads the Republican field with 20%, ahead of other GOP contenders.
• A Becerra-Hilton general election would maintain the Democratic lock on the governorship.
• The poll suggests Republicans face a narrow path to victory in November.

Tom Steyer Trails at 15% as Democratic Field Narrows

Tom Steyer, the billionaire environmental activist, is in third place with 15% support, trailing both Becerra and Hilton. The poll indicates Steyer is unlikely to overtake Becerra before the primary ends, barring a major shift.

Democrats have spent months fretting that two Republicans could advance past a crowded Democratic field, but the latest polling suggests a single Republican will face Becerra. Steyer's late spending spree and attacks on Becerra have failed to close the gap.

• Steyer's 15% places him behind both Democratic and Republican frontrunners.
• The primary is now effectively a two-person race between Becerra and Hilton.
• Steyer's campaign disputes the poll's timing, citing late May advertising blitz.

Key Takeaways

• Xavier Becerra is the frontrunner with 23% support, well ahead of his Democratic rivals.
• Republican Steve Hilton has 20% support and is the likely general election opponent.
• Tom Steyer's 15% shows a competitive but increasingly narrow Democratic primary.
• The PPIC poll indicates Becerra has a strong lead in the final week before the primary.
• California's Democratic tilt makes Becerra the heavy favorite for the general election.
• Democrats avoided the nightmare scenario of two Republicans advancing to November.